Impact of gross domestic product on inflow of foreign direct investment in India

The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India has paved the path for the economical and financial development of a country. There has been significant increase in economic growth after the liberalization policies undertaken by India in 1991 (Nagaraj 1997). Though the journey to growth has not always been a smooth trend for India. However, the reformation has improved the gross domestic product (GDP) over the years. It has indicated sound growth especially in the recent years when the inflow of foreign capital has increased immensely (Sahni 2012).

High gross domestic product after economic liberalization

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all the goods and services produced within the geographical boundary of the country. It aids in determining the total product produced within the country. It also reflects on the standard of living of the people within the domestic territory (Pattayat 2016). Nominal GDP seeks to evaluate the market values of the product at the current prices. On the other hand GDP per capita aids in evaluating the economic growth of the country (Malhotra 2012).

Significant increase in the gross domestic product after liberalisation of1991

Gross Domestic Product of India ( 1960 -2014) Source : Planning Commission

Gross domestic product is also used to compare the productivity within a given time period. Tracking it for a long period of time provides information to the investors about the economic state of the country. Therefore, in case of India foreign investors often get induced to invest in the country for its rising growth rate (Agrawal & Khan 2011). In the recent years after 2000 the gross domestic product of India has taken-off to shine as the third nation with respect to the purchasing power parity with 3.611 trillion USD. With respect to the USD exchange rate India stands at the tenth position with a GDP of 800.8 billion US dollar in 2006 (Narayana & Babu 2008) and according to the World Report, India is the second largest growing economy with a GDP rate of 7.56% in 2015.

India ranked 10th in terms of receiving foreign direct investment

Top ten countries in terms of receiving foreign direct investment (Source : UNCTAD,. 2015)

However this was followed by certain crests and troughs due to political and economic instability within the country and reached a stability between 2003 and 2007 (Handbook of Satistics 2015). The global financial crisis which started from the collapse of Lehman brothers in USA had an impact on the economy of India too. As a result the growth rate declined to 6.22% in 2008 (Gola et al. 2013). This was followed by a hike in 2010 and a sharp fall in 2011 and 2012 with growth rate reaching the lowest of 3.2%. The main reasons behind such low growth was due to the the political turmoil within the country along with poor infrastructural growth and increased corruption. India revived form the situation in two years’ time and reached 7.24% in 2014 and 7.56% in 2015 (Handbook of Satistics 2015).

Positive relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment in India

Larger market size attracts foreign investment. In Indian context the large size of market is measured in terms of population and gross domestic product. With an increasing growth rate and with second highest population in the world has resulted with an increased production. The economies of scale and optimum utilization of the resources in the large market is not only beneficial to the investors but also to the growth of the country. Therefore, the increasing growth rate of India has attracted more foreign investment to the country than any other determinants (Maheswari 2015).

Increase in inflow of foreign direct investment in India in 2015 as compared to 2014

Inflow of FDI in major economies in 2014 and 2015   Source : UNCTAD (2016)

The trend of foreign investment and gross domestic product started with a slow rise in economic growth and a gradual increase in foreign direct investment till 2006. This was due to the hindrance in the path of investment inflow in India as the policies of India did not permit relaxation.

However due to certain internal turmoil such as the great recession faced by the world and variant financial crisis within the domestic boundary inflow of foreign investment has been fluctuating (Gupta & Garg 2015). In 2013 India faced a political instability for which the growth fell to the minimum in the decade. Therefore, it affected the inflow of foreign direct investment which fall from 46556 billion USD to 36556 billion USD. However after 2013 the inflow of foreign direct investment revived  to 44208 billion USD in 2015 as economic growth increased (Handbook of Satistics 2015).

Statistically checking the relationship between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment

The correlation between the FDI inflow and GDP (per capita) indicates that there is a high positive correlation of 0.7406. This suggests that with an increase in one factor the other tends to increase in the Indian context. Therefore, with Indian perspective it can be stated that gross domestic product is a major determinant for foreign direct investment. Economic growth of the country attracts foreign capital as the investors are interested in the prosperous future of India. The trends of the inflow of FDI and GDP also supports the positive correlation between them.

positive and high correlation between gross domestic product and inflow of foreign direct investment

Correlation between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment in India

Similarly in the long run association between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment can be seen in the co-intergration analysis (shown in the figure below). So, the positive relationship between the two variables has also been established statistically.

long run association between gross domestic product and inflow of foreign direct investment in India

Co-integration analysis between gross domestic product and the foreign direct investment in India

Existence of two way relationship

GDP as one of the main determinant of foreign investment has initiated the inflow. At the same time the higher inflow of foreign capital has led to a further economic growth of the country (Agrawal & Khan 2011). This is because with higher capital inflow there is increase in production of goods and services and the employment opportunities. As a result this increases the gross domestic product and makes the economy more attractive to foreign investors.

However despite the rapid economic growth, India has faced a low foreign investment inflow as compared to other developing nations. This is because other determinants were not suitable to attract the investors. Besides economic growth other determinants also plays an important role. The focus should also be in development of country along with the economic growth. This will further lead to the evolution of India as a developed nation in the future.

References

  • Agrawal, G. & Khan, M.A., 2011. Impact of FDI on GDP: A Comparative Study of China and India. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(10), pp.71–79.
  • Gola, K.R., Dhrawal, M. & Agarwal, A., 2013. Role of Foreign Direct Investment in the Development of Indian Economy. GYANPRATHA-ACCMAN Journal of Management, 5(1).
  • Gupta, K. & Garg, I., 2015. Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in India: An Econometric Approach. Journal ofManagement Sciences and Technology, 2(3), pp.7–14.
  • Handbook of Satistics, 2015. Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy Reserve Bank of India 2014-15, New Delhi.
  • Maheswari, J., 2015. Macro- economic determinants of foreign direct investment in india. International Journal of Economic and Business Review, 3(2), pp.59–65.
  • Malhotra, B., 2012. Foreign Direct Investment : Impact on Indian Economy. Journal of Business Management and Information Technology, 1(2278–3679), pp.17–23.
  • Nagaraj, R., 1997. What Has Happened since 1991? Assessment of India’s Economic Reforms. Economic and Political Weekly, 32(44), pp.2869–2879.
  • Narayana, V.L. & Babu, S.D., 2008. Indian Economic Growth and Role of Foreign Direct Investment. Mohammad Sarthak Engg. College (Faculty Column).
  • Pattayat, S.S., 2016. Examining the determinants of FDI inflows in India. Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXIII(2), pp.225–238.
  • PlanningCommission, 2015. Macro economic indicators of India. Government of India. Available at: http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/index.php?data=datatab [Accessed November 28, 2016].
  • Sahni, P., 2012. Trends and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in India: An Emperical Investigation. , 2(8), pp.144–161.
  • Unctad, 2016. World Investment Report 2016 – INVESTOR NATIONALITY: POLICY CHALLENGES,
Ananya Mitra

Ananya Mitra

Research analyst at Project Guru
With a master’s degree in economics and specialization in finance Ananya is an analyst in the field of Commerce and Finance with Project Guru. She takes interest in the contemporary Economical and Financial issues across the world. She has been an outstanding teacher in her field for seven years and understands the needs of her student and tries to aid them to direct them in the right path.
Ananya Mitra

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