Stock market trend analysis or equity market trend analysis refers to the process of examining the current trends based on the past and current movement of the stocks in order to predict future trends.
The previous article showed that the three-time series values Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFC) and Private Final Consumption (PFC) are non-stationary. Therefore they may have long-term causality. The general assumption, in this case, is that consumption PFC affects GDP, therefore these variables might be cointegrated.
In the previous article, all possibilities for performing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling for the time series GDP were identified as under. S. No ARIMA 1 (1,1,1) 2 (1,1,2) 3 (1,1,3) 4 (1,1,4) 5 (1,1,5) 6 (1,1,6) 7 (1,2,1) 8 (4,2,1) 9 (9,2,1) Table 1: ARIMA models as per ACF and PACF graphs.